MLB Barometer: Second Chance Leagues Risers and Fallers

I'm a big advocate for leaning on the wisdom of crowds whenever possible. While I have enough confidence in my evaluations and predictions to endorse the things I write and say, I'm also aware that if I differ from the expert consensus on a given player, there's a strong chance I'm not in fact smarter than every other person who writes and talks about fantasy baseball. 

I think the same way about the experts I follow most closely. While I'm a fan of theirs for a reason, I should balance what they say against what the rest of the industry thinks. The industry's top talents may in fact know a good deal more than the rest of us, but everyone has his or her own personal biases and blind spots. If you pool the wisdom of a large group of knowledgeable people (and I count those playing in high-stakes leagues alongside those paid to talk about the game among that group), those inaccuracies tend to cancel out, leaving a clearer picture of the truth than you'd get by listening to any one person.

That's why I enjoy participating in large group events such as The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational or the Too Early Mocks. It's why I frequently reference NFBC average draft position. And it's also why, while I wasn't able to participate, I've enjoyed looking at the results of the NFBC's Second Chance Drafts from this past weekend. They provide an excellent window into how the market as a whole (or at least 144 drafters across a set of 12-team leagues) values players two months into the season compared to over the offseason, which just so happens to be a perfect fit for this column. 

This week, we'll take a look at the players at each position who rose and fell the most from their preseason ADP. I've limited the Risers section to only include those players who have risen into the top 200 (except for catcher, where I've expanded out to the top 300), in part because these are 12-team leagues and in part to capture the players who have truly excited drafters rather than just those who slipped into the reserve rounds. For the Fallers, I've skipped players who fell because they aren't expected to be available for most of the rest of the season.

RISERS

Starting Pitchers

Trevor Rogers, Marlins: The RotoWire Roundtable Rankings crew ended up rather high on Rogers, ranking him 229th in our final update before the start of the season. While that was 174 spots above his ADP, it apparently wasn't nearly aggressive enough, as it was 169 spots later than he went in the second chance drafts. Jumping from one spot behind MacKenzie Gore in the pitcher rankings to one spot behind Hyun Jin Ryu is very impressive, but it's hard to say it was undeserved. Rogers isn't as good as his 1.97 ERA suggests, but he wasn't nearly as bad as his 6.11 ERA indicated last year, either. Judging by his xFIP, which has improved slightly from 3.67 to 3.44, he's basically the same guy he was last year. His 29.7 percent strikeout rate is a near match for his 30.0 percent mark as a rookie, while he's improved his walk rate slightly from 10.0 percent to 8.8 percent. Rogers has pedigree as the 13th-overall pick in the 2017 draft and features a fastball that sits at 94.7 mph from the left side, and he gets to pitch in one of the league's more pitcher-friendly parks. There's nothing not to like here, so taking him as a true frontline starter makes sense to me even if he has yet to make his 20th career big-league start.

Relief Pitchers

Alex Reyes, Cardinals: It's never been a secret that Reyes is a talented pitcher, but health and role questions made him little more than a late-round flyer over the offseason. He was one of the top prospects in the entire league in the middle of last decade and burst onto the scene with a 1.57 ERA in 46 innings in 2016, but injuries limited him to just 26.2 big-league frames over the next four seasons. While two injury-free months this season don't conclusively answer the health questions, the role questions surrounding Reyes were answered in a somewhat surprising way, as he's emerged as the Cardinals' undisputed closer, recording 16 of the team's 20 saves. Jordan Hicks' elbow issues have helped clear that path, but Reyes was the clear ninth-inning man even when Hicks was healthy. Reyes' stock in the Second Chance drafts is perhaps a bit too aggressive, as his excellent 0.90 ERA comes with a .217 BABIP and 96.9 percent strand rate, and it's tough to be too confident in someone with a 20.6 percent walk rate even if he's striking out 32.1 percent of opposing batters. Giovanny Gallegos lurks as potentially a more stable option, but there's no indication the Cardinals are close to a change, so Reyes' huge jump is understandable.

Catchers

Omar Narvaez, Brewers: Narvaez' stock was probably too low over the offseason. Yes, he was terrible last year, hitting just .176/.294/.269, but that came in just 40 games and was far out of line with what he'd done over the previous two seasons, when he hit .277/.358/.448. This year, he's done far more than merely bounce back to pre-2020 form, as he's hitting .317/.400/.516 through his first 41 games. He's seeing the bump he was supposed to get last year after moving from Seattle's pitcher-friendly park to his new hitter-friendly home in Milwaukee, but his improvements go beyond mere park factors. He's hitting the ball more often than he has since 2017, striking out just 17.2 percent of the time, and he's making far better contact than ever before, with his 10.8 percent barrel rate more than doubling his career 3.8 percent mark. Even with a .354 BABIP inflating his numbers somewhat, his .294 xBA and .501 xSLG indicate he's not overachieving by much, so there's even reason to buy in the rest of the way.

Corner Infielders

Jared Walsh, Angels: As his second-chance ADP indicates, Walsh is for real. Despite some excellent numbers from him last season, there was understandably some skepticism surrounding him over the offseason, as his .293/.324/.646 line last year came in just 32 games, a sample that was easy to dismiss for a 27-year-old who produced a 58 wRC+ and a 40.2 percent strikeout rate in limited action prior to the 2020 campaign. He's followed that up with a .301/.361/.563 line so far this season, however, homering 13 times in 57 games, giving him a combined 89 games with a 154 wRC+ over the last two seasons. While he's been unable to maintain his 13.9 percent strikeout rate from last year, his 25.6 percent mark this season is a perfectly acceptable mark for a power hitter in the modern era. His ADP in the Second Chance leagues may be slightly too aggressive, as his .265 xBA and .451 xSLG this season indicate he's a good hitter but an overachieving one. I'm not sure I'd take him ahead of Jose Abreu, Matt Olson and Max Muncy, as was the case in those drafts, but he's right there in a tier with those established options despite his limited track record.

Middle Infielders

Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Rangers: Kiner-Falefa wasn't much more than a curiosity over the offseason, as the infielder-turned-catcher-turned infielder was worth a look as the Rangers' everyday shortstop but didn't have too much of a track record at the plate. His modest 93 wRC+ in 58 games last year represented a career high, though it at least came with a .280 average and eight steals. That level of performance was evidently sustainable, as Kiner-Falefa now owns a career-best 104 wRC+ while hitting .284/.319/.407. More importantly, he's proven he's going to continue to run, as he's already stolen 10 bases (at a 90.9 percent success rate, well above his 61.5 percent mark from last season), tying him for seventh in the league. He's also not a complete zero in the power department, as his five homers already represent a career high. Players who run as much as he does without killing you elsewhere are very valuable, so the big jump for Kiner-Falefa makes plenty of sense, especially as he can now fill in both at the middle and corner infield spots.

Outfielders

Cedric Mullins, Orioles: I've somehow managed to go all season without featuring Mullins in this column. After grabbing eight hits and three homers in his two weekend games against Cleveland, he is now getting his due. Mullins had accomplished very little prior to this season, hitting .225/.290/.342 with seven homers and 10 steals in 418 plate appearances, but those who took a chance on him over the winter, likely as little more than a late-round flyer who might run a bit, have to be thrilled with the results. While his .322/.390/.533 slash line is inflated by a .368 BABIP, his .274 xBA and .436 xSLG are both perfectly fine numbers, especially for a player who already has nine steals. Don't expect him to maintain his early-season numbers the rest of the way, but a 20-20 season is very much in reason and should come with a decent or better batting average.

FALLERS

Starting Pitchers

Zach Plesac, Cleveland: The magnitude of Plesac's drop likely is related in large part to the broken thumb he suffered reportedly while aggressively taking off his shirt in late May. Even without the injury, however, he deserved to fall a fair amount. The righty earned quite a bit hype over the winter coming off a season in which he backed up his 2.28 ERA with an excellent combination of a 27.7 percent strikeout rate and 2.9 percent walk rate. That came in just eight starts, however, and the strikeout rate in particular didn't line up with the rest of his career numbers. He struck out just 18.5 percent of opposing batters as a rookie the year prior and owned a modest 23.8 percent strikeout rate in the minors. While Plesac was able to maintain a strong 5.1 percent walk rate in his first 10 starts this season and also increased his groundball rate significantly from 39.3 percent to 52.7 percent, his strikeout rate cratered all the way to 16.2 percent. His ceiling is capped if he's not an asset in that category (which has been the case for the majority of his professional career), and his floor has taken a hit as well, as a lack of whiffs is a large reason why his ERA has jumped to 4.14, a number that could be even higher if not for his .223 BABIP.

Relief Pitchers

David Price, Dodgers: The fact that Price is in this category instead of the former one is a large reason why he's fallen so far. For most of the winter, he looked like a favorite to spend most of the year as a starter, with the primary worry being how good he'd look following a year off. He failed to break camp in the rotation, however, and he hasn't been asked to record more than eight outs in any of his 13 appearances even with three technically counting as starts. There's still a chance he moves into a rotation role later in the year, but Tony Gonsolin's imminent return from the shoulder injury that kept him out all year pushes him one spot further down the depth chart. Price's 4.42 ERA and 1.69 WHIP hardly suggest he'll be an interesting option should he eventually settle into a starting role, though those could fall along with his .404 BABIP.

Catchers

Yasmani Grandal, White Sox: I don't believe it's an exaggeration to say Grandal is having the strangest season I've ever seen. He's hitting just .153 on the season, yet he's somehow managed a 136 wRC+, the fifth-best mark among catchers with at least 100 plate appearances. He's gotten to that number thanks to his .392 on-base percentage and .414 slugging percentage. Nine of his 17 hits have been homers, while his 45 walks, nearly triple his hit total, beat his strikeout total (41) by four. He's gotten to his highly unusual line seemingly by refusing to swing, even at pitches in the zone. His 42.1 percent swing rate on pitches within the zone leads all hitters who have come to the plate at least 100 times by a wide margin, with only three other hitters coming within 15 percentage points of that mark. While his power has helped fantasy teams, he's offset that with his terrible average and ranks 17th among all catchers in earned auction value. He's still fine in OBP leagues, where he shoots all the way up to fourth at the position, but he'll need a big jump in his average in standard setups. His .210 xBA suggests an improvement is coming, but he still might do too much damage to your batting average to be worth his offseason price tag.

Corner Infielders

Keston Hiura, Brewers: Is there a bigger disappointment than Hiura this season? His 2020 campaign was certainly well below expectations, as he hit just .212 while striking out 34.6 percent of the time, but his pedigree as the ninth-overall pick in the 2017 draft led me and many others to take a chance on him over the winter as a high-ceiling power-speed threat who was expected to be quite useful even if he failed to come close to repeating his .303 average from his rookie campaign back in 2019. That hasn't come close to happening, as his strikeout rate jumped up again to 39.3 percent, leading to a miserable .130/.217/.222 sash line through 122 plate appearances. His .162 xBA suggests only a small portion of his struggles are attributable to bad luck, and the Brewers evidently agree, as they demoted him for the second time this season Monday. He'll probably remain down for longer this time, as, while he did hit .438 in nine Triple-A games following his first demotion, that came with a 34.2 percent strikeout rate. He's simply not a major-league hitter at the moment, a shocking development for a player who was a fifth-round pick in 15-team leagues over the winter.

Middle Infielders

Didi Gregorius, Phillies: Gregorius' fall is no doubt due in part to the elbow injury with which he's currently sidelined, but his numbers from before the injury provide reason to worry even once he returns. After hitting .284/.339/.488 last season, a strong bounce-back from a down year the season prior, he owns a .229/.266/.364 line through 32 games this year. His strikeout rate has jumped from 11.8 to 20.3 percent, his highest mark since his eight-game debut back in 2012. While he's always significantly outperformed his expected stats, seemingly due to his uncanny ability to hit the ball a few feet over the fence in right field, his .209 xBA and .292 xSLG this season are both easily career lows and aren't anywhere close to expectations. The veteran shortstop is on his way back from his elbow injury, as he was seen taking batting practice over the weekend, but he'll need to significantly improve his performance if he's to match his offseason expectations the rest of the way.

Outfielders

Clint Frazier, Yankees: There were plenty of reasons to be excited about Frazier over the offseason, as he finally looked set to occupy an everyday role and was coming off a season in which he broke out to hit .267/.394/.511 with eight homers in 39 games. Very little has gone right for him so far this year, however, as he's hitting just .185/.305/.318 with five homers through 50 contests. His strikeout rate has barely changed, so he can blame a drop of nearly 100 points in his BABIP, which has fallen from .338 to .240, for some of his struggles. BABIP isn't exclusively a measure of luck, however, as it's partially a reflection of a player's quality of contact in addition to measuring whether that contact finds a hole or a defender's glove. In Frazier's case, his low BABIP appears to be mostly a reflection of poor contact, as his .209 xBA and .361 xSLG are both easily career lows.