The Z Files: Raking Since the Break

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Published on August 16, 2022

The recipe is pretty simple. The harder the exit velocity of a batted ball, the better the chance of it being a hit. Here is a visualization of the BABIP data since 2018, parsing contact into grounders, outfield line drives and flyballs, over the following exit velocities:

95-100
100-105
105-110
100+

I'm not especially interested in the trends, at least not yet. I'll revisit the data when deciding how to regress batted ball data for projections, especially if MLB institutes legislation of the shift. For today, the pretty colored graphs serve as a foundation when the stats for several batters are dissected.

Specifically, batted ball data since the break will be reviewed. Everyone with at least 75 plate appearances through Sunday's action will be included.

The underlying notion is players crushing the ball since the break have a better chance to be productive down the stretch. It can be argued acquiring the hitters now is too late as they are not likely to maintain this elevated level of performance. Maybe, maybe not. That's the holy grail. In a vacuum, the data is not predictive but we all have to make choices and some intriguing numbers will be presented.

I'm going to pick out several players I'd like to discuss. If there is someone else you'd like handled, please post their name in the comments and I'll be happy to oblige.

	Batter	PA	AVG	SLG	wOBA	ExitVel	LA	BABIP	95-100	100-105	105-110	>110
1	Matt Chapman	80	0.294	0.676	0.446	95.6

95-100
100-105
105-110
100+

Specifically, batted ball data since the break will be reviewed. Everyone with at least 75 plate appearances through Sunday's action will be included.

I'm going to pick out several players I'd like to discuss. If there is someone else you'd like handled, please post their name in the comments and I'll be happy to oblige.

	Batter	PA	AVG	SLG	wOBA	ExitVel	LA	BABIP	95-100	100-105	105-110	>110
1	Matt Chapman	80	0.294	0.676	0.446	95.6	21.8	0.387	65.8%	50.0%	26.3%	5.3%
2	Tommy Pham	96	0.242	0.407	0.288	93.3	5.4	0.339	62.7%	42.4%	15.3%	1.7%
3	Yordan Alvarez	93	0.267	0.520	0.374	93.7	11.7	0.300	61.8%	45.5%	23.6%	9.1%
4	Teoscar Hernandez	78	0.296	0.592	0.399	95.4	13.3	0.320	61.8%	41.8%	29.1%	5.5%
5	Aaron Judge	103	0.372	0.936	0.574	95.8	18.5	0.400	60.4%	50.9%	41.5%	20.8%
6	Max Muncy	82	0.268	0.563	0.384	94.5	21.4	0.326	56.3%	35.4%	16.7%	0.0%
7	Ronald Acuna	89	0.296	0.407	0.333	90.7	7.6	0.349	55.6%	34.9%	22.2%	3.2%
8	Paul Goldschmidt	78	0.318	0.727	0.464	92.4	13.6	0.295	54.9%	39.2%	19.6%	0.0%
9	Manny Machado	103	0.287	0.574	0.379	92.6	18.1	0.328	54.3%	32.9%	12.9%	1.4%
10	Adolis Garcia	100	0.319	0.516	0.385	92.7	10.5	0.403	53.0%	31.8%	15.2%	4.5%
11	Vladimir Guerrero	89	0.341	0.561	0.403	93.5	4.3	0.373	52.9%	47.1%	28.6%	12.9%
12	DJ LeMahieu	99	0.279	0.465	0.364	91.1	3.1	0.294	52.8%	29.2%	6.9%	0.0%
13	Juan Soto	94	0.286	0.471	0.411	91.5	10.9	0.321	52.6%	36.8%	19.3%	3.5%
14	Luke Voit	83	0.257	0.429	0.346	90.5	21.8	0.366	52.3%	36.4%	13.6%	2.3%
15	Anthony Santander	90	0.345	0.595	0.418	91.6	20.9	0.375	52.2%	34.8%	18.8%	2.9%
16	Kyle Schwarber	81	0.222	0.486	0.330	92	16.3	0.250	52.1%	43.8%	29.2%	12.5%
17	Trent Grisham	79	0.246	0.580	0.382	86.9	11.4	0.244	51.9%	34.6%	11.5%	3.8%
18	Jose Abreu	95	0.284	0.432	0.326	91.6	5.4	0.338	51.5%	33.8%	17.6%	5.9%
19	AJ Pollock	76	0.303	0.545	0.391	88.3	9.4	0.315	50.9%	29.8%	15.8%	1.8%
20	Austin Riley	96	0.326	0.593	0.417	94.6	16.4	0.391	50.7%	47.8%	28.4%	11.9%
21	Pete Alonso	94	0.350	0.625	0.436	91	14.2	0.377	50.0%	37.9%	19.7%	6.1%
22	Lourdes Gurriel	80	0.315	0.370	0.327	91.4	9.5	0.377	49.2%	36.1%	4.9%	0.0%
23	MJ Melendez	100	0.267	0.500	0.360	91.6	13	0.321	49.2%	34.4%	14.8%	0.0%
24	Hunter Renfroe	87	0.253	0.573	0.387	90.9	14.3	0.245	49.1%	40.4%	12.3%	3.5%
25	Jose Miranda	81	0.333	0.493	0.379	92.3	14.3	0.407	49.1%	24.6%	8.8%	0.0%
26	Michael Harris	78	0.315	0.548	0.385	88.9	2.1	0.396	49.0%	35.3%	17.6%	5.9%
27	Donovan Solano	78	0.338	0.485	0.378	89.7	11	0.420	49.0%	32.7%	2.0%	0.0%
28	Randal Grichuk	86	0.350	0.550	0.402	92.6	8	0.439	48.3%	36.7%	23.3%	3.3%
29	Brandon Lowe	78	0.222	0.389	0.291	90.8	13.9	0.265	48.1%	25.0%	11.5%	0.0%
30	Andrew Vaughn	83	0.299	0.494	0.361	90.2	12.1	0.308	47.8%	25.4%	6.0%	3.0%
31	Eloy Jimenez	87	0.383	0.568	0.418	91.4	9.4	0.429	47.8%	28.4%	20.9%	6.0%
32	Nolan Arenado	78	0.314	0.714	0.450	90.5	20.5	0.288	47.5%	33.9%	10.2%	0.0%
33	Francisco Lindor	94	0.362	0.575	0.435	89.9	11.6	0.424	46.8%	27.4%	4.8%	0.0%
34	Brendan Rodgers	102	0.370	0.489	0.387	90.7	3.1	0.410	46.8%	29.1%	15.2%	0.0%
35	Ben Gamel	86	0.205	0.342	0.288	89.6	12.9	0.246	46.6%	24.1%	8.6%	0.0%
36	Yandy Diaz	81	0.174	0.348	0.288	91.1	9.6	0.164	46.6%	24.1%	10.3%	1.7%
37	Ian Happ	86	0.301	0.422	0.322	89.4	1.5	0.436	46.3%	27.8%	14.8%	0.0%
38	Bo Bichette	76	0.274	0.493	0.327	89.9	18.4	0.333	46.3%	31.5%	9.3%	1.9%
39	Kyle Tucker	83	0.237	0.434	0.306	87.8	18.1	0.242	46.2%	23.1%	6.2%	0.0%
40	Jonah Heim	83	0.217	0.362	0.320	90.7	17.6	0.275	46.2%	21.2%	1.9%	0.0%
41	Will Smith	88	0.295	0.500	0.365	90.3	18.1	0.333	46.0%	25.4%	6.3%	0.0%
42	Josh Bell	91	0.178	0.274	0.271	89.9	8.6	0.207	45.8%	20.3%	10.2%	0.0%
43	Nathaniel Lowe	99	0.348	0.576	0.412	90	11.8	0.452	45.5%	33.3%	18.2%	3.0%
44	Jurickson Profar	104	0.287	0.468	0.352	88.9	14.6	0.329	45.3%	25.3%	5.3%	0.0%
45	Riley Greene	104	0.220	0.330	0.245	89	4.4	0.323	45.3%	29.7%	9.4%	3.1%
46	Freddie Freeman	99	0.313	0.458	0.371	91.6	14.4	0.329	45.3%	22.7%	10.7%	0.0%
47	Josh Donaldson	88	0.225	0.388	0.298	91.9	6.2	0.314	45.3%	32.1%	17.0%	1.9%
48	Ryan McMahon	83	0.250	0.500	0.355	88.6	9	0.283	45.1%	21.6%	9.8%	3.9%
49	Matt Olson	95	0.229	0.506	0.351	91.5	11.9	0.226	45.0%	36.7%	18.3%	5.0%
50	Shohei Ohtani	96	0.237	0.550	0.362	91.8	14.8	0.222	45.0%	31.7%	18.3%	1.7%
51	Mookie Betts	109	0.313	0.586	0.399	91	17.3	0.305	44.8%	27.6%	10.3%	0.0%
52	Jesus Aguilar	82	0.189	0.392	0.267	89.5	20.5	0.196	44.6%	21.4%	16.1%	0.0%
53	Xander Bogaerts	91	0.253	0.410	0.309	90	16.4	0.311	44.4%	27.0%	9.5%	0.0%
54	Josh Naylor	80	0.276	0.421	0.316	89.7	9.4	0.317	44.3%	26.2%	14.8%	4.9%
55	Oneil Cruz	78	0.194	0.417	0.283	89	2.6	0.237	44.2%	20.9%	16.3%	9.3%
56	Bryson Stott	83	0.299	0.416	0.333	89.7	12	0.324	44.1%	19.1%	1.5%	0.0%
57	Christian Walker	93	0.267	0.500	0.335	89.5	19.6	0.265	43.8%	30.1%	15.1%	2.7%
58	Alec Bohm	93	0.333	0.448	0.351	89.7	15.4	0.386	43.7%	26.8%	11.3%	0.0%
59	Cedric Mullins	87	0.299	0.455	0.339	87.6	6.4	0.339	43.5%	24.2%	8.1%	0.0%
60	Gavin Lux	82	0.310	0.479	0.373	88.7	3.7	0.356	43.3%	21.7%	3.3%	0.0%
61	Dansby Swanson	99	0.272	0.348	0.290	89.4	15.4	0.375	43.1%	20.0%	6.2%	0.0%
62	Joey Votto	93	0.192	0.397	0.319	89.6	9.3	0.204	43.1%	29.4%	11.8%	0.0%
63	JJ Bleday	85	0.213	0.387	0.303	88.2	19.2	0.280	42.3%	21.2%	3.8%	0.0%
64	Vinnie Pasquantino	87	0.308	0.526	0.375	89.5	12.5	0.308	42.0%	23.2%	8.7%	1.4%
65	Javier Baez	95	0.276	0.402	0.317	89.3	6	0.367	41.9%	30.6%	12.9%	3.2%
66	Sean Murphy	85	0.254	0.479	0.371	88.3	8.1	0.269	41.1%	33.9%	10.7%	5.4%
67	Randy Arozarena	83	0.280	0.467	0.352	89.9	7.1	0.340	41.1%	35.7%	21.4%	1.8%
68	Rowdy Tellez	76	0.281	0.609	0.402	89.9	18.7	0.279	40.8%	30.6%	18.4%	6.1%
69	Christian Yelich	96	0.253	0.354	0.324	90.7	0.1	0.370	40.7%	35.2%	18.5%	5.6%
70	Gleyber Torres	94	0.167	0.267	0.206	88.3	21.9	0.210	40.6%	21.9%	6.3%	0.0%
71	Adley Rutschman	93	0.300	0.457	0.406	88.2	10	0.357	40.4%	28.1%	12.3%	1.8%
72	Daulton Varsho	84	0.282	0.535	0.383	89	19.9	0.302	40.4%	21.1%	7.0%	0.0%
73	Ramon Urias	86	0.215	0.367	0.261	86	15	0.237	40.3%	14.5%	4.8%	0.0%
74	Luis Rengifo	99	0.295	0.474	0.340	88.2	9.4	0.325	40.2%	18.3%	2.4%	0.0%
75	Willson Contreras	80	0.250	0.515	0.376	85.1	10.2	0.260	40.0%	32.0%	14.0%	2.0%
76	Patrick Wisdom	79	0.235	0.471	0.341	87.5	22.6	0.279	40.0%	28.9%	20.0%	2.2%
77	Seiya Suzuki	88	0.171	0.317	0.230	87.5	10.2	0.186	40.0%	20.0%	1.7%	0.0%
78	Andrew McCutchen	87	0.257	0.446	0.347	90.9	14.3	0.279	39.7%	30.2%	7.9%	1.6%
79	Alex Bregman	96	0.333	0.595	0.421	88.3	18.5	0.324	39.5%	22.4%	5.3%	0.0%
80	Harold Castro	88	0.298	0.393	0.315	87.4	17.2	0.358	39.4%	18.2%	3.0%	0.0%
81	Jorge Mateo	76	0.333	0.611	0.411	87.9	15.2	0.385	39.3%	26.8%	14.3%	0.0%
82	Rhys Hoskins	93	0.272	0.494	0.370	88.5	18	0.315	39.0%	28.8%	8.5%	0.0%
83	Josh Rojas	85	0.303	0.421	0.338	89.8	9.1	0.323	38.8%	17.9%	3.0%	0.0%
84	Trea Turner	100	0.309	0.515	0.345	88.5	14.4	0.329	38.6%	26.5%	13.3%	1.2%
85	Brandon Belt	75	0.188	0.234	0.252	83.3	29.1	0.255	38.3%	17.0%	4.3%	0.0%
86	Cody Bellinger	80	0.203	0.514	0.306	89.6	20.9	0.182	38.3%	18.3%	1.7%	0.0%
87	Jared Walsh	89	0.173	0.284	0.228	87.8	8.4	0.241	38.2%	20.0%	7.3%	0.0%
88	Carlos Santana	76	0.123	0.308	0.234	87.9	23	0.096	38.2%	21.8%	1.8%	0.0%
89	Taylor Ward	98	0.207	0.356	0.283	88.1	17.7	0.219	38.2%	17.6%	1.5%	0.0%
90	Corey Seager	87	0.267	0.480	0.363	89.3	8.6	0.271	38.1%	23.8%	9.5%	0.0%
91	Amed Rosario	110	0.276	0.457	0.327	88.8	8.4	0.301	37.9%	23.0%	6.9%	0.0%
92	Eugenio Suarez	94	0.169	0.325	0.288	90	19.6	0.222	37.5%	20.8%	10.4%	4.2%
93	Ha-Seong Kim	79	0.276	0.421	0.311	88.2	15.9	0.345	37.3%	23.7%	1.7%	0.0%
94	Luis Urias	79	0.265	0.471	0.354	87.4	21	0.294	37.0%	16.7%	1.9%	0.0%
95	Jeremy Pena	96	0.217	0.337	0.247	85.6	2.7	0.261	36.6%	21.1%	5.6%	0.0%
96	Brandon Drury	92	0.220	0.463	0.321	87	17	0.232	36.1%	19.7%	9.8%	0.0%
97	Yoan Moncada	92	0.165	0.266	0.246	87.7	9.3	0.226	35.8%	13.2%	5.7%	0.0%
98	Myles Straw	83	0.185	0.247	0.182	87.5	7.8	0.214	35.2%	4.2%	0.0%	0.0%
99	Leody Taveras	88	0.244	0.305	0.259	86.7	9.4	0.345	35.1%	22.8%	7.0%	0.0%
100	C.J. Cron	98	0.187	0.330	0.241	88.7	14.4	0.234	34.8%	21.2%	12.1%	4.5%
101	Jeimer Candelario	84	0.228	0.430	0.301	88.3	10.2	0.259	34.5%	17.2%	5.2%	0.0%
102	Nick Pratto	80	0.182	0.364	0.291	85.1	21.5	0.256	34.1%	26.8%	4.9%	0.0%
103	Jorge Polanco	84	0.194	0.292	0.271	87.8	27.2	0.236	33.9%	16.1%	3.6%	0.0%
104	Ketel Marte	89	0.212	0.388	0.281	89.5	15.5	0.250	33.9%	22.6%	9.7%	1.6%
105	Brandon Nimmo	97	0.241	0.333	0.293	85.4	11.5	0.270	33.3%	21.3%	5.3%	1.3%
106	Jonathan Schoop	81	0.160	0.293	0.211	85.5	12.4	0.192	33.3%	20.4%	13.0%	3.7%
107	Ramon Laureano	90	0.190	0.345	0.257	86.3	21.5	0.255	33.3%	27.8%	13.0%	0.0%
108	Ty France	80	0.214	0.357	0.286	84.1	5.8	0.214	32.8%	13.8%	5.2%	0.0%
109	Whit Merrifield	76	0.247	0.356	0.274	84.5	11.6	0.298	32.8%	8.6%	0.0%	0.0%
110	Nick Castellanos	89	0.289	0.398	0.322	85.4	13.9	0.338	32.8%	17.9%	4.5%	0.0%
111	Nico Hoerner	83	0.284	0.432	0.347	86.6	12.3	0.306	32.8%	16.4%	3.3%	0.0%
112	Hunter Dozier	82	0.162	0.243	0.215	86.8	7.5	0.212	32.7%	17.3%	9.6%	0.0%
113	Jake McCarthy	78	0.286	0.343	0.315	86.1	4.3	0.339	32.2%	15.3%	1.7%	0.0%
114	Willy Adames	95	0.230	0.368	0.269	85.9	19.1	0.270	31.8%	12.1%	1.5%	0.0%
115	Wilmer Flores	87	0.276	0.461	0.360	87.1	21.3	0.300	31.7%	15.9%	3.2%	0.0%
116	Joey Wendle	92	0.244	0.300	0.245	87	2.4	0.289	31.6%	17.1%	2.6%	0.0%
117	Starling Marte	85	0.278	0.443	0.334	87.1	7	0.352	31.6%	24.6%	14.0%	0.0%
118	Carlos Correa	82	0.243	0.400	0.316	85.7	14.2	0.255	31.0%	22.4%	8.6%	1.7%
119	Alex Verdugo	89	0.329	0.488	0.375	89	12.7	0.388	30.9%	11.8%	7.4%	0.0%
120	Luis Arraez	76	0.315	0.425	0.332	89.5	14.9	0.328	30.9%	4.4%	0.0%	0.0%
121	Nick Senzel	76	0.203	0.275	0.244	84.5	9	0.259	30.8%	19.2%	1.9%	0.0%
122	Kyle Farmer	80	0.271	0.314	0.302	87.2	14	0.339	30.8%	13.5%	1.9%	0.0%
123	Jose Ramirez	101	0.261	0.424	0.301	85.9	18.2	0.256	30.6%	18.8%	8.2%	0.0%
124	Dylan Carlson	87	0.167	0.346	0.256	87	11.3	0.169	30.6%	14.5%	6.5%	0.0%
125	Michael Taylor	80	0.303	0.355	0.306	86	14.6	0.393	30.4%	19.6%	5.4%	0.0%
126	Andrew Benintendi	89	0.250	0.316	0.301	85.1	15.8	0.311	29.5%	9.8%	0.0%	0.0%
127	Jonathan India	78	0.271	0.471	0.353	87.2	18	0.333	29.4%	13.7%	0.0%	0.0%
128	Andres Gimenez	91	0.342	0.494	0.402	81.8	17.9	0.397	29.2%	12.3%	3.1%	0.0%
129	Luis Gonzalez	80	0.203	0.290	0.263	82.4	14.3	0.236	28.6%	14.3%	1.8%	0.0%
130	Jarren Duran	78	0.183	0.352	0.266	84.8	3.6	0.244	27.7%	12.8%	4.3%	2.1%
131	Adam Frazier	93	0.263	0.300	0.299	84.8	12.3	0.313	27.5%	5.8%	1.4%	0.0%
132	Alek Thomas	80	0.233	0.315	0.275	86.9	1.1	0.262	27.4%	17.7%	9.7%	0.0%
133	J.P. Crawford	91	0.235	0.272	0.259	83.7	5.7	0.247	27.3%	14.3%	5.2%	0.0%
134	Aaron Hicks	83	0.167	0.167	0.219	85.9	16.9	0.218	27.3%	12.7%	1.8%	0.0%
135	Marcus Semien	112	0.222	0.394	0.291	85.5	25.6	0.220	26.7%	15.1%	2.3%	0.0%
136	Ryan Mountcastle	88	0.169	0.247	0.226	87.8	17.1	0.203	26.7%	15.0%	11.7%	0.0%
137	Ezequiel Duran	84	0.256	0.359	0.294	82.7	17.8	0.339	26.3%	19.3%	1.8%	0.0%
138	Jose Altuve	105	0.298	0.457	0.357	83.2	14.7	0.317	26.2%	15.5%	4.8%	0.0%
139	Charlie Blackmon	92	0.190	0.274	0.230	85.6	7.1	0.209	26.1%	17.4%	1.4%	0.0%
140	Yuli Gurriel	86	0.259	0.346	0.277	87.9	10.5	0.284	26.0%	16.4%	2.7%	0.0%
141	Marcell Ozuna	78	0.184	0.329	0.219	87.4	20.7	0.224	25.0%	23.1%	15.4%	3.8%
142	Jeff McNeil	81	0.333	0.560	0.392	88.6	15.7	0.338	25.0%	7.4%	0.0%	0.0%
143	Miguel Rojas	84	0.216	0.257	0.250	83.7	16	0.246	24.2%	9.1%	3.0%	0.0%
144	Isiah Kiner-Falefa	79	0.260	0.315	0.274	85.8	5.7	0.295	24.2%	4.8%	0.0%	0.0%
145	Jake Cronenworth	93	0.216	0.324	0.310	84.8	20.4	0.237	23.3%	6.7%	3.3%	0.0%
146	Kevin Newman	87	0.256	0.354	0.285	82.5	8.6	0.328	22.2%	12.7%	1.6%	0.0%
147	Jose Iglesias	89	0.358	0.444	0.362	81.6	3.5	0.414	21.4%	5.7%	1.4%	0.0%
148	Cesar Hernandez	89	0.253	0.329	0.291	79.7	12	0.313	19.7%	4.5%	1.5%	0.0%
149	Steven Kwan	107	0.340	0.474	0.380	82.8	10	0.369	15.1%	2.3%	0.0%	0.0%

Matt Chapman

Chapman has been crushing the ball a lot longer than since the break, but through Sunday, his slash line was still just .239/.319/.473, which speaks to how unlucky he was to begin the season. He's sporting the seventh-highest launch angle over this span, so he's not just hitting the ball hard he's elevating it, boosting his power. Chapman's flyball average exit velocity since the break is 97.3 mph, the 12th highest. There are some intriguing names ahead of him:

Player	ExitVel
J.T. Realmuto	100.8
Oneil Cruz	100.5
Paul Goldschmidt	100.3
Trent Grisham	99.6
Salvador Perez	99.2
Aaron Judge	99
Willson Contreras	98.4
Byron Buxton	98.4
Chas McCormick	98.2
Yordan Alvarez	98.1
Hunter Renfroe	97.4
Matt Chapman	97.3

A few of them will be discussed momentarily. Suffice it to say Chapman has exhibited the ability to sustain a high level longer than most of the names, which bodes well for the rest of the season.

However, it should be noted Chapman's strikeout rate has picked up over the second half, spiking to 36.3 percent for the last few weeks after he posted a palatable 25.6 percent clip over the first half.

Even so, not only is Chapman someone to consider for the stretch run, he's a prime target in keeper leagues, even if you need to wait until the offseason to make your pitch. His final numbers will still fall short of his skill level.

Tommy Pham

Regular readers know I'm a component BABIP wonk. Pham is a great example. Look at his launch angle. He's hitting the ball exceptionally hard, but he's not elevating it as much over the second half. To wit, Pham's average launch angle was 9.0 degrees through the break, but only 5.4 degrees since. Perhaps the inviting Green Monster will give Pham the impetus to put a few more batted balls in the air. Hitting leadoff in a potentially potent lineup doesn't hurt either. Pham hasn't pilfered a base since July 3 (he's been caught twice in that span), but it wouldn't be surprising if he snagged a handful, especially if he's successful on his first try as Boston runs when the percentages are in their favor.

Max Muncy

Muncy is a lot like Chapman, but on a smaller scale. He's elevating the ball with authority, but his strikeout rate has also increased as he's posted a 29 percent mark since the break compared to 24.2 percent over the first half. The primary difference is while Chapman was hitting the ball hard for much of the season without commensurate results, Muncy's prebreak average exit velocity was just 88 mph, leading to a low .188 BABIP (which was also unlucky).

The takeaway is Muncy has found his stroke since the break, and even if he falls back some, his current level is more akin to his track record than how he opened the campaign. Muncy's average should remain a drain, but he should be good for some pop as he's already clubbed five long balls in August.

Trent Grisham

Grisham is among the league leaders in hard-hit rate, but his .244 BABIP is just 116th highest among those qualifying for the study. He's hit nine grounders over 95 mph, four of which eclipsed the century mark with one topping 105 mph. However, he's 0-for-9 on his hard-hit groundballs becoming hits since the break. Using the BABIPs shown on the above Groundball chart, Grisham should have garnered four hits on these nine grounders. On the other hand, he's tattooed five hard hit outfield line drives, two over 100 mph with two more surpassing 105 mph, and all have landed safely. That said, based on outfield line drive BABIP, at least three, likely four should have been hits so overall he's still been unlucky on hard-hit balls.

Grisham has fanned at a 22.8 percent clip since the break, a couple of ticks below his usual mark. His playing time might have been in jeopardy once Fernando Tatis returned, but that's no longer a concern. Grisham isn't going to win a league, but he's a sneaky "throw-in" to a larger deal with some plausible upside if he achieves results commensurate with how well he is hitting the ball.

Jose Miranda

Miranda is a nice example of a player both lucky and good. His .407 BABIP since the break is driven by hitting the ball with authority and receiving the requisite results, along with good fortune on batted balls hit with lower exit velocities. On paper, his hit rate should regress (and it likely will), but the landing point could still be high if Miranda continues anything close to his current hard-hit rate.

Michael Harris

A couple weeks ago, when reviewing first-half earners, it was pointed out if Harris' numbers were prorated, he'd be a top-20 overall player, let alone outfielder. The caveat was he likely wouldn't have maintained such a high level of play if he broke camp with the club. As it turns out, he indeed has not sustained that level… HE'S PERFORMED EVEN BETTER!

Harris is tied for 10th in percentage of balls hit over 110 mph.

1	Aaron Judge	20.80%
2	Vladimir Guerrero	12.90%
3	Kyle Schwarber	12.50%
4	Austin Riley	11.90%
5	Oneil Cruz	9.30%
6	Yordan Alvarez	9.10%
7	Pete Alonso	6.10%
8	Rowdy Tellez	6.10%
9	Eloy Jimenez	6.00%
10t	Jose Abreu	5.90%
10t	Michael Harris	5.90%

Wow, that's an impressive neighborhood. Cruz also deserves a special nod. Acquiring Harris via trade this season is likely impossible from a practical sense. As reticent as I am about trusting young players, I'm likely going to be in on Harris next year. You don't hit the ball this hard by accident and he is in select company, even if he falls off down the stretch.

I was planning on discussing Steven Kwan, Jose Iglesias and Andres Gimenez, but they're all more about a high level of play without stellar exit velocity. Let's keep this discussion to those crushing the ball since the break, and I'll find a way to weave that trio into an upcoming Todd's Takes. Deal?