Hunter Greene

22-Year-Old PitcherP
Cincinnati Reds AAA
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Greene will be a full two years removed from his Tommy John surgery at the projected start of the 2021 regular season. Still, the chances of him pitching in the major leagues in 2021 are incredibly slim given everything that stacks up against him. He is 21 years old with 72.2 innings of professional baseball under his belt. He has a fastball for days which we know can touch 103 mph, but the other pitches need time to develop and he simply needs time to hone his craft after missing the past two seasons of competitive baseball. Even if everything goes smoothly in his return to game action, Greene is unlikely to debut until 2023. The potential for stardom is still there for the 2017 first-round pick, but the opportunity is far off on the horizon and there will likely be more bumps along the way. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#600
ADP
$Signed a $7.23 million contract with the Reds in July of 2017.
Reaches innings limit
PCincinnati Reds  AAA
September 17, 2021
Greene has reached his innings limit and will not pitch again this season, Charlie Goldsmith of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports.
ANALYSIS
The decision ends any hope of Greene making his big-league debut this season, though that was always a long shot at best. The 22-year-old will end the year having produced a 3.30 ERA and 1.18 WHIP across 21 starts at the two highest levels of the minors, striking out 31.7 percent of opposing batters while walking 8.9 percent. It was a very encouraging season for the 2017 second overall pick, who missed two straight seasons due to Tommy John and the coronavirus pandemic. He has set himself up well to potentially make his major-league debut in 2022.
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2018
Greene and the Reds decided to take the rest-and-rehab route with his torn UCL, and to the surprise of very few, it did not work out. What was lost was essentially eight months of would-be recovery time; Greene was first diagnosed with a sprained UCL in his right elbow in early August of 2018 and did not undergo Tommy John surgery until April 9. The second overall pick in 2017 after landing a Sports Illustrated cover with the caption "The Star Baseball Needs," Greene was always seen as a Tommy John risk given his upper-90s velocity out of high school. The procedure obviously slows his development timeline, but Greene is only 20 years old and his future remains bright. Expect the 6-foot-4 righty to push closer to the long end of the typical 12-18 month recovery window from TJS. He should pitch 50 or so innings at the low levels late in the season before building back up in earnest in 2021.
Greene showed flashes of his immense upside last season, but his career is in a bit of a holding pattern due to an elbow injury. After some initial bumps in the road with Low-A Dayton, Greene, the second overall pick in the 2017 first-year player draft, went on to post ace-like numbers over a 10-start stretch (2.39 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 59:9 K:BB in 49 innings). The good fortune ran out -- Greene turned in a few abbreviated outings in July before being diagnosed with a sprained UCL in his right elbow. Usually, the course of action with that diagnosis is Tommy John surgery, but Greene opted against surgery. It's risky to pass on the procedure. For many players, the alternative routes still end up leading to the same destination and they simply delay the inevitable. Greene started throwing off a mound in December and should be a full participant in spring training if he avoids setbacks, but the potential for TJS before he reaches MLB is still an elephant in the room.
Greene only logged 4.1 innings (three starts) on the mound after receiving the largest bonus ($7.23 million) of any player in the 2017 draft. The Reds deployed him as a designated hitter initially, in part to see how he stacked up against pro pitching and also to get him acclimated while limiting his innings. He was then transitioned to the hill, where he figures to spend the rest of his career. He sat at 99-to-100 mph with his fastball in each of his outings, never throwing more than 35 pitches. At 6-foot-4, 197 pounds, he has a prototypical starter’s frame. Some evaluators believe he is the most athletic prep righty to come along in 20 years. This athleticism leads to plus projections on his command. Until his secondary pitches can be thrown with confidence, he will be prone to some ugly stat lines, but it’s important not to focus on that right now. He’s throwing gas, he’s healthy, all is good. Look for him to be held back in extended spring training, before eventually finishing the year with Low-A Dayton.
More Fantasy News
Ejected in return Tuesday
PCincinnati Reds  AAA
August 17, 2021
Greene (shoulder) started for Triple-A Louisville on Tuesday and was ejected during the third inning, Bobby Nightengale of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports.
ANALYSIS
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Scratched from Triple-A start
PCincinnati Reds  AAA
Shoulder
August 11, 2021
Greene was scratched from his scheduled start at Triple-A Louisville on Wednesday due to irritation in his right AC joint, Bobby Nightengale of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports.
ANALYSIS
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Stumbles in Triple-A
PCincinnati Reds  AAA
July 15, 2021
Greene has struggled since his promotion to Triple-A Louisville, putting up a 5.24 ERA and 1.50 WHIP across five starts.
ANALYSIS
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Moves up to Triple-A
PCincinnati Reds  AAA
June 13, 2021
The Reds promoted Greene from Double-A Chattanooga to Triple-A Louisville on Sunday, Bobby Nightengale of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports.
ANALYSIS
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Duels with Max Meyer
PCincinnati Reds  AAA
June 12, 2021
Greene won a pitcher's duel for Double-A Chattanooga with Pensacola's Max Meyer on Friday night, throwing six shutout innings while striking out nine, Nick Trujillo of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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